OECD cuts the growth of Italy in 2018, worse performance among the big countries

The OECD confirms 1% growth in Italian GDP for 2017, but cuts forecasts for 2018 from 1% in March at 0.8%. It is the worst case among all the major countries. To be weighing next year, according to the semi-annual Economic Outlook of the Paris-based international organization, will be a correction of public accounts estimated at 1% of GDP, “as required by EU rules, even if the economy is running Well below its potential and the recovery remains fragile, “indicates the Organization’s semi-annual Economic Outlook. The assumption is that the correction implies a mix of rising taxes on consumption and spending cuts, “although the government recently reported that it intends to implement a tax adjustment of 0.3%.”

The OECD recipe, however, is based on ‘giving priority to public investment in infrastructure, research programs and the fight against poverty and the continuation of structural reforms’ that would accelerate recovery and increase potential output, as well as make the More inclusive growth and reduce the debt / GDP ratio, which has “stabilized”. The Organization foresees a deficit / GDP of 2.1% this year and 1.4% next and a public debt declining to 131.8% in 2017 and 130.6% in 2018 after 132 , 5% hit in 2016. The unemployment rate is expected to slightly fall to 11.5% this year and 11.2% to the next, from 11.7% in 2016.

Growth in employment is slowing down by + 1.3% in 2016 to + 0.7% this year and by + 0.5% in the next. The private consumption forecast will be affected by + 0.7% and + 0.4%, after + 1.3% in 2016. Public consumption is expected to grow by 0.6% this year as in 2016, but As a whole, to + 0.1% in 2018. As a whole, domestic demand, after rising by 1.1%, should be satisfied by + 1% in 2017 and 0.9% in 2018. Exports It is estimated to increase by 4.1% in 2017 and by 3.6% in 2018, but also by imports (+ 4.7% and + 3.9%). Inflation, after -0.1% in 2016, should be 1.5% in 2017 and 1.3% in 2018.

Raises to + 3.5% global growth 2017, “a little better but not enough”

As the global economy’s mood has risen in the last year, yet modest cyclical expansion is not strong enough to ensure lasting recovery of potential output or to reduce persistent inequalities. The OECD in the Mid-Year Economic Outlook revised the growth of global GDP in 2017, from 3.3% in March to 3.5%, and maintains an estimate of 3.6% for 2018, after 3% Of 2016. Compared to the average of 20 pre-crisis years, the GDP growth of the OECD per capita remains below half a point and is also below global growth, notes the study. This was also influenced by foreign markets, for example, UK was greatly influenced by the increased popularity of the casinos, as there was a lot of new online casinos in UK.

After five years of weak recovery, with the growth of 2016 at the lowest level since 2009 – however, the OECD economists say – “begins to see improvement”.

Investments, trade and the manufacturing sector are on the rise but starting from low levels, helped by a strengthening of domestic demand in Asia and Europe, and private sector confidence has also grown. There are signs of increased demand for high-tech goods and investments to improve the production equipment. Helping the stimulus policies pursued by some emerging economies, particularly in Asia and the moderate support tax policies in various advanced economies, help. For the OECD area, which brings together the 35 industrialized countries, the growth forecast is 2.1% in 2017 and 2018, after 1.8% in 2016.

Italy, as it was said, is the tail lamp. The US Pil is seen in acceleration, but less than in March: prospects are up 2.1% this year and 2.4% next, after + 1.6% in 2016 (but Against + 2.4% and + 2.8% indicated three months ago).



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